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The first half of 2023 has come to an end, under the influence of rigid demand, high temperature weather and other factors, the air conditioning market in the first half of 2023 handed over a satisfactory answer. According to the latest total data of AVC, the omnichannel retail volume of China's air conditioning market reached 37.265 million units in 2023H1, an increase of 18.8%. Retail sales reached 130.16 billion yuan, up 19.5 percent year on year. In addition, according to public media data, as of press date, more than 20 listed home appliance companies have announced performance forecasts for the first half of 2023, and more than 80% have achieved net profit growth. Among them, Hisense Home appliances is expected to have a net profit of 1.333-1.491 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, an increase of 110%-140%! Changhong Meiling expects the first half of the net profit of 320-380 million yuan, an increase of 430.02%-529.40%! Under the air conditioning products as one of the main growth drivers, the home appliance manufacturers in the first half of 2023 achieved a double increase in volume and profit.
In July, the retail market declined rapidly, and the growth rate of production scheduling fell significantly in August, and enterprises felt both cold and fire
Now into the second half of the year, the air conditioning retail market performance in July turned sharply downward, according to Ovey cloud network (AVC) retail monitoring data, since July, the industry retail sales decline trend is obvious, online W26-W29 year-on-year decline of 19.4%, 13.9%, 7.0% and 23.0%.
Air conditioning production also suffered a decline in August after six consecutive months of high growth. According to the latest production data of AVC, the total production of air conditioning enterprises in August was 11.23 million units, of which 8.09 million units were produced for domestic sales, an increase of -1.0%, and 3.14 million units were produced for export, an increase of 2.3%.
Regarding the reasons for the decline in the growth rate of air conditioning scheduling, we believe that there are the following points:
1. The demand release in the first half of the year was strong, and the retail demand trend declined in the second half
Due to the advance of the concentrated outbreak of hot weather this year, coupled with the larger 618 promotion period, the consumer purchase demand of China's air conditioning market has been released to a large extent in the first half of 2023. However, at the same time, it also means that the industry retail growth driver is insufficient in the second half of the year, and the possibility of a strong outbreak of demand will be significantly reduced. In the case of conservative demand trend, it is rational for air conditioning enterprises to schedule production back.
2. During the same period, the market stress demand broke out and the production scheduling base was high
From the perspective of the overall sales rhythm in 2022, due to the multi-frequency of heavy rain weather in June, the outbreak of high temperature weather in July and August, the sales season of air conditioners is mislocated with that of previous years. According to the total data of AVC, the retail sales of air conditioners in July and August 2022 increased by 20.0% and 59.4%, respectively, with the outbreak of stress demand in 2 months. Ensure the annual scale resilience. At the same time, according to the production monitoring data of Aowei Cloud network, domestic sales and production in August 2022 were 8.169 million units, which were in a high base state during the same period in the past year. Although the overall demand for air conditioning is good this year, there is greater growth pressure under the high base of production scheduling in August.
3, this year, the pace of enterprise production and stock ahead of time, the inventory level is higher
Driven by the good overall demand environment and the tense atmosphere of seizing upstream parts resources this year, the enthusiasm of the air conditioning industry for production scheduling in the first half of the year is high, driving the overall inventory level of the industry higher. Air conditioning production for six consecutive months of high growth, we believe that the production logic of the enterprise is to a large extent from February to April "make up" inventory, May to July "guarantee" inventory, now after half a year of accumulation, the enterprise inventory is benign, channel inventory has maintained sufficient water level. If the high increase in production in the same period last year is the "late repair" of insufficient inventory, the inventory level this year is enough to let the channel business "waiting".
The decline in growth rate under the high base must be viewed rationally, and the new cold year will open to do three things: product iteration, deep cultivation of channels and capacity building
As the new cold year of the air conditioning industry opened in August, retail sales and production scheduling need to be looked at rationally. In the long term, the per capita quantity of air conditioners in China still has a large room for improvement, the demand is resilient, and the logic of the increase of the quantity remains unchanged. In the short cycle, in 2009-2013 due to the "old appliances for new" and "home appliances to the countryside" and other consumer stimulus activities shipped home appliances, into the centralized scrap or renewal of the "replacement period", coupled with this summer's high temperature weather is still continuing, the second half of the expected growth rate of air conditioning will be adjusted back compared with the first half of the year, but the overall expectation is still relatively optimistic. We expect 2023H2 shipments to be flat compared to the same period last year.
However, at the beginning of the cold year, air conditioning enterprises still need to concentrate on cultivating internal skills, and be sure to do three things:
Product iteration. Firm "user-centered, product as the core" concept, in the product upgrade iteration process, on the one hand pay attention to technology research and development and innovation, consider the use of advanced air conditioning technology, such as energy saving, environmental protection, intelligent control and other technologies, to promote the development of air conditioning products. On the other hand, user demand-oriented, through continuous improvement of product functions and performance to meet the user's sense of experience, such as the launch of a set of appearance level fashion, comfortable health, efficient intelligence as one of the series of new products, is bound to help enterprises in the stable scale, structural adjustment, expansion and other aspects of continuous force.
The channel is deeply cultivated. In 2023, the rapid expansion of home appliance sinking channels, the classification of goods on online e-commerce platforms, and the rise of new retail methods of online and offline channel integration represented by Jingdong Super Body have brought new growth opportunities to home appliance manufacturers. Under the development of more retail terminals, more customized products and more fragmented channels, brand parties can only maintain leading market competitiveness by deepening channel construction and deepening channel product layout.
Capacity building. On the one hand, we will establish close cooperation with suppliers, distributors and technical partners to jointly promote product development and iteration, upgrade and optimize supply chain management, strengthen channel structure reform, embrace retail transformation, and achieve business quality improvement. On the other hand, we provide perfect after-sales service and warranty policies to enhance consumers' trust and satisfaction with products and improve user experience and loyalty. Therefore, relying on brand traction, quality assurance, and strengthening comprehensive service capabilities, we can continue to create a growth situation.
With operation as the core, market-oriented, unswervingly iterating products, in-depth construction channels, and all-round forging of management capabilities, we can promote the air conditioning industry to open a new bureau at a new starting point.
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