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Into the traditional peak season of household air conditioning, production and sales reappear high growth. Industry online data shows that in April 2023, household air conditioners produced 18.087 million units, up 12.0% year on year; Sales were 17.910 million units, up 13.3 percent year-on-year. In terms of domestic export market, domestic sales were 10,597,000 units, up 29.7% year on year; Exports were 7.313 million units, down 4.3 percent year on year. Industrial inventories fell 5.7 per cent from a year earlier.
On the production side, industry production has been growing since February, based on the hot weather last year when supplies were sold out. In terms of sales, with the release of the epidemic, air conditioning enterprises and dealers are optimistic about the market. Dealers actively stock up for the peak season market, and domestic sales achieved a good growth of nearly 30% in April. Export markets remain sluggish. Overall, there are two notable things about the current market:
? Is growth from a low base "real" growth?
The domestic market, based on the industry's good expectations for this year's market after the deregulation of control, and the overall pace of production and shipment moving forward, the domestic market achieved a growth beyond expectations in the first quarter of this year, and also maintained a positive inventory situation in April. At the same time, the hot summer weather arrived, and the market grew significantly.
It is worth noting that April last year was the month in which the Chinese economy was most seriously affected by the worsening of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai and other places. The supply chain was disrupted and the production rhythm was disrupted due to the epidemic, resulting in the overall production and shipment of the industry at a low level. So this growth from a low base still raises questions about whether the market has really returned to pre-pandemic levels.
The first is that sales of home air conditioners fell 1.8 percent in April this year compared to April 2019. As can be seen from the data, although the current growth trend is strong, the industry has not fully recovered, and there are some variables in the future trend. In addition, what we know from the upstream compressor market is that the real performance of the market may not be known until the middle of summer due to the large uncertainties in the third and fourth quarters due to the pressure of reducing the number of units. Air conditioning manufacturers for the overall market expectations may be cautious.
In the export market, affected by inflation and strikes in many places, global consumer demand is still weak. Orders from leading customers are weak, and the industry is still facing great growth pressure. Although the successful holding of the Canton Fair in April brought some export orders, they were mainly reflected in the latter two months, and were still in a state of decline in April. Even if May and June can reverse the previous downward trend, the current support is still insufficient, do not rule out later will return to the downward trend.
? In May, the growth trend of production is still the same, and the trend of the terminal market is difficult to detect
From the production data of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the total output of compressor enterprises in May was 23.55 million units, an increase of 4.7% compared with the same period last year. In May, the output of household air conditioning industry was about 18.85 million units, up 18.0% compared with the actual production performance in the same period last year.
The whole machine scheduling is still rising, in addition to the demand for the peak season, and the impact of raw materials. Copper prices are currently in a phase of rising and falling. With the falling price of raw materials, the cost pressure of producers will be relatively reduced, and the demand of producers will also rise.
From the point of view of May Day sales, the terminal market did not have a big growth: on the one hand, under the hot cultural travel market, the purchase of household appliances demand reduced; Consumers, on the other hand, remain wary of big-ticket purchases. Therefore, for the future trend of household air conditioning, or to see whether the weather to force, enterprise expectations of growth generally bet on high temperature weather in the peak season.
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