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"We grew in the first nine months of this year, but the decline in October basically ate up the previous increment," a regional marketing center manager of an air conditioning brand said to the author. This is obviously not a case, it is understood that the vast majority of the domestic regional air conditioning market, whether shipments or retail sales in this month's trend sharply downward, has become a watershed of the whole year.
The reason for this phenomenon is not accidental, it is the result of the previous market state, industry environment, short-term strategy of enterprises and many other factors, the current market will cast a shadow on the trend of the later period, the sharp decline of terminal retail also brings heavy pressure to the off-season market expansion of the factory.
Peak season partial prosperous after weak
Since May this year, the domestic air conditioning market has shown signs of recovery. If before this air conditioning market how to change there is still a certain controversy, but into the end of the second quarter, the peak season of the market of high growth has been clear.
Especially after "June 18", the long period of hot weather in East China, Southwest China and North China stimulated the outbreak of terminal retail market, and the market demand suppressed by the epidemic factors was fully released. South China market hot relatively late, relatively speaking, the overall situation is not as good as other regions.
One of the direct results of this trend is that the demand resources are mined in advance, and the subsequent space is greatly compressed; Therefore, after entering September, the terminal market fell into a trough, and this pattern did not get any improvement in October, and the stage characteristics of subsequent weakness are very obvious.
Over the years, whether it is the supply chain level, or the whole machine manufacturing and circulation channels, all hope that the demand can be in the peak season phase of sales to achieve a balanced distribution, but, the change of temperature, directly driven by the change of market demand, the seasonal characteristics of the air conditioning market is like fate plagued the whole industry.
One thing is certain, even if this year's peak season stage has appeared a booming sales pattern, it is difficult to change the fate of the whole year's market decline on a year-on-year basis, in the loss of a variety of external dividends including the real estate market support, the stock of air conditioning market in the quantitative scale is deteriorating is the general trend.
Channel precious little gold demand lag
The large area of terminal retail decreased year-on-year, directly hit the confidence of the channel business, although there has been in the off-season stage retail bleak preparation, but can not withstand the demand for a long time to continue the downturn; In addition, the environment itself is not superior, the channel for the future development of safety, to follow up the factory off-season policy to maintain a very prudent attitude.
In the last one or two months, many air conditioning enterprises in various regional markets in the domestic conference marketing, the performance and situation obtained, far from the expected, the traditional operation rhythm and way of air conditioning industry in the inventory era has been tested again.
And crucially, large electric business platform is instantly penetrate into the line, the impact on the existing circulation channels network formation, the mode of these platforms with both the method of air conditioner, electric business platform offline network pursues is not even with a straight hair goods, bulk distribution, thus further squeeze a lot of air conditioning factory of netting space on the channel resources.
Therefore, the industry as a whole shipments decline, the plant's off-season collection difficulty also appears to be natural. Especially before the arrival of "Double 11", the vast majority of manufacturers and large distributors focus their resource delivery plans on this node.
This is not only true for the manufacturing and commercial end, but also for some consumers with purchase demands who are waiting for the arrival of "Double 11". If the market sales surge in the previous peak season digested the demand in advance, then at this moment, the demand is lagging behind.
Two lines of declining industry under pressure
Downturn in the domestic market at the same time, export markets did not bring too much good to the factory, on the contrary, export markets are almost echoes the domestic market, exports have fallen sharply, heat pump products of popular abroad, did not pass the effect in the field of household air conditioner, and export the adverse situation, has also increased the pressure of the whole air conditioning industry.
It is interesting that when the domestic and foreign markets appear to be under heavy pressure, there are some brands and enterprises are carrying out capacity expansion, production base expansion. The author understands that many brands are planning to enter the field of air conditioning at present. From these measures can also be seen that the fundamentals of the air conditioning industry will not collapse temporarily because of the unsatisfactory domestic and foreign market.
In the face of the unfavorable situation of the two markets, various enterprises' response and adjustment measures are not the same. Large household appliances enterprises hope to further improve their profitability and realize the transformation of growth mode through structural adjustment. And many small and medium-sized brands have been on the price, if the market trend is not very good before the peak season next year, the emergence of a large area of radical price competition is not impossible.
In addition, even if is the terminal retail channels and the shape of the shipment is not ideal, but the inspection efforts did not appear on the marketing end relief, a lot of enterprise and brand marketers have felt a cold chill, actually is not only the market itself increment of space, more is the performance review with the internal requirements of market performance.
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