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Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from August 2021 to July 2022, room air conditioners were produced 22.072 million units, down by 3.0 percent compared with the same period in the previous cold year; In the dimension of domestic sales, the domestic retail sales of air conditioning in 2021-2022 were 141.1 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year with the previous period.
So, the air conditioning industry in 2023 cold year, is the continuation of the downward trend, or against the wind? For now, the former looks more likely.
The housing market stalled
This year, the real estate into a downward cycle.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9,0809 billion yuan, down 7.4% year on year; Of this, the investment in residential buildings was 6,887.8 billion yuan, down 6.9%.
From January to August, housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8.686.49 million square meters, down 4.5 percent year on year. Of this total, the construction area of residential buildings was 6,136.04 million square meters, down 4.8 percent.
From January to August, the area of commercial housing sold was 878.9 million square meters, down by 23.0% year on year, among which the area of residential housing was down by 26.8%. Sales of commercial housing fell 27.9 percent to 8,587 billion yuan, of which residential housing sales fell 30.3 percent.
In August 2022, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with declining sales prices of commercial housing increased, and the growth rate of all cities fell back or the decline expanded...
Real estate industry "sneeze", home appliance market will catch a cold. As a downstream industry of real estate, home appliances are affected by the real estate market more directly, and their performance is also more distinct. And as the real estate continues to bottom out, the external power of the home appliance market is more insufficient. Moreover, the impact of real estate on the retail market of home appliances has a lag effect of about half a year, which also means that the home appliances market will suffer from the shadow of real estate "stall speed" for a considerable period of time.
Policy stimulus is limited
Various policies to stimulate home appliance consumption have not stopped since this year. According to statistics, as of June this year, nearly 30 provinces and cities have issued policies to stimulate home appliance consumption.
Successive policies have given a boost to the home appliance market. From the municipal home appliance association linkage of a number of home appliance enterprises, organize home appliance brand owners and recycling industry units, carry out 2022 "Love Chongqing" green smart home appliances in old for new benefit consumption promotion activities, introduce new subsidies, discount promotion and other concessions...
From CERTAIN Angle point OF view, ceasELESS policy IS rolled OUT, also confirmed the downturn OF home appliance market from the side and lag. However, the stock era, external policy dividend, stimulus effect is limited, unable to reverse the basic disk. The key to market recovery is the internal impetus on the demand side.
Consumption downgrades are still spreading
Consumption has been downgraded and consumer sentiment has become cautious, which many people will have first-hand experience of in 2022.
In the first half of this year, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 2,043.2 trillion yuan, down 0.7 percent year on year. This year's May Day, "618" "dumb fire", is also a stark example.
Micro to the air conditioning industry, in the consumption upgrade at the same time, the trend of consumption downgrade has also risen.
In the cold year of 2022, while the air conditioning industry as a whole declined, the shipments of most of the second and third-tier brands have increased, and a number of small and medium-sized brands have had significant growth. The shipments of new brands such as Xiabao, Mbo and KePCO have also reached a record high.
This is mainly due to the rise in raw material prices, head brands have optimized the product structure, pushing up the new sales. It is this adjustment that highlights the product price competitiveness of the second and third-tier brands and caters to the low-end demand under the mentality of consumption degradation. Coupled with this summer's continuous high temperature, stimulate emergency demand blowout, low-end air conditioning temporarily sold out.
Although the cold year of 2022 has passed, unexpected factors such as frequent outbreaks and extreme weather such as high temperature, drought and little rain have had a large impact, the contradiction of insufficient market demand is prominent, and enterprises face more difficulties in production and operation. From the present point of view, consumer confidence still needs to be restored, consumption downgrade, will still spread in 2023 cold year.
"A big year is followed by a small year," is an old saying in the air conditioning industry. Although the whole 2022 freezing year is not really a big year, but this summer's continuous high temperature, created a "big season", and this wave of demand harvesting, to a certain extent, overdraft later consumption resources.
In the stock era, the lack of endogenous demand in the air conditioning market, coupled with the above three disadvantages, it is indeed a little difficult for air conditioning to grow in the cold year 2023.
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