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Russia -Ukraine conflicts are impacting global politics and economy to varying degrees. The European region of the conflict center has close trade with China, and China -Europe trade has increased year by year. In terms of household air conditioning, Russia and Ukraine are both important export markets and important raw materials. The continuous tension situation is bringing multiple tests to the air conditioning industry.
The average export price of upstream supply has continued to rise
In the past two years, the continuous rise in commodities in the past two years is bringing tremendous cost pressure to the manufacturing industry. Under the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the tension of supply has been further exacerbated.
Copper: Russia is the fifth largest copper country in the world and the third largest exporter. Essence
Zinc ingots: According to relevant statistics, European smelting capacity is currently about 2.4 million tons. With the upgrading of the Russian conflict, the Northern Xixi No. 2 Natural Gas Pipeline Project was unable to put it into use, and the cost of energy in Europe is difficult. The production loss of the European zinc smelting plant may continue to suppress the output of European zinc ingots.
Aluminum: The rise in energy costs in Europe, and the reduction of refinery production has pushed the price of electrolytic aluminum. Russia has rich aluminum ore resources, and the output of aluminum ore and electrolytic aluminum accounts for 5.5%and 6%of the world's global. Will reproduce.
Iron and Steel: Ukraine is one of the world's largest iron ore and steel producers, and steel accounts for about one -tenth of European imports. Data show that in 2021, Ukraine's crude steel output was 21.4 million tons, an increase of 3.6%year -on -year; the output of raw iron was 21.2 million tons, an increase of 3.6%year -on -year; the production of rolling steel was 19.1 million tons, an increase of 3.5%year -on -year; Essence The outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict caused the interruption of steel mills, which will keep steel prices a record high.
As the main supply upstream of the air -conditioning industry, the supply of copper, aluminum, and steel will directly affect production costs. In order to ensure the profit space, enterprises will effectively transfer production costs through price increase. Industry online monitoring data shows that the average export price of household air -conditioning products in the first quarter of 2022 has reached 191.0 US dollars, and the growth rate in 2021 continues to rise. Among them, the average export price in March was as high as $ 197.1.
At the same time, the pressure of rising prices of upstream raw materials will also promote the industry to actively carry out technical research on air -conditioning products. Enterprises have carried out technological research, reducing costs while improving the security of the industrial chain.
Long -term impact on the short -term shrinkage of European exports is limited
Industry online monitoring data show that the scale of the global home air -conditioning industry has increased year by year, with about 250 million units in 2021, a record high. The industrial advantages and huge markets of China's air -conditioning have also established the leading position of the Asian region in the global air conditioner. China has become the largest production base of the global air conditioner. It has the most complete air -conditioning industry chain system. With super supply capacity, the release of strong production capacity is the strong support of the air -conditioning export market.
From 2019-2021, the demand for household air conditioners in Europe has continued to increase. Online monitoring data of the industry shows that the export volume of home air-conditioning European market in 2021 was 12.489 million units, with an export value of 2.27 billion US dollars. become. For two consecutive years of high -speed growth, in addition to the rising and stimulating demand for exported areas, it is also related to the surge in home demand after the outbreak of the epidemic and the launch of consumer incentive policies in various places.
However, under the influence of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, it was tightened in 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the home air -conditioning European market export volume was 4.082 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 10.0%, and the proportion of the total exports fell from 19.2%to 18.3%; exports exported exports; exports The amount was US $ 720 million, a decrease of 5.7%year -on -year, and the proportion of the total export value fell from 18.6%to 17.0%.
Russia and Ukraine are important markets in Europe. Among them, Russia is the second and European exporter in the world, and its status is important. Industry online data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the export volume of Chinese air -conditioning to the Russian market was 1.538 million units, an increase of 14.8%year -on -year. Although the growth rate is steady, it has not been expected. Without the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the Russian market should perform better because of the high temperature in 2021, there are not many local household air conditioning inventory, and in 2022, it needs to be supplemented with inventory, but in many countries to Russia in Russia, Under economic sanctions, the Russian stock market plummeted, currency depreciated, and purchasing power declined.
In the first quarter of 2022, the export volume of China's air -conditioning to the Ukraine market was 179,000 units, a year -on -year decrease of 22.5%. Ukraine in the center of the storm, the economy stagnates, the market is depressed, and the purchasing power is anxious. Under the war, the people were displaced and poured a large number of surrounding areas. Therefore, some demands were transferred to neighboring countries, such as Poland, Romania, Hungary and other countries' market demand rose sharply in the short term.
In short, from the current point of view, the political turmoil, economic depression, exchange rate changes, rising price of upstream raw materials, and trade frustration caused by the situation caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine are constantly emerging. After the conflict ended, the adjustment was ushered in. In the long run, the situation of Russia and Ukraine has limited impact on the general direction of the overall Chinese air -conditioning export market.
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