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Guotai Junan released research report stated that air-conditioning production and sales were affected by Spring Festival holidays and leading corporate channel reform, but the overall trend change suggested observed "1 + February" linkage performance. The short-demand trend has not changed, and the export is still maintained, and the visibility of overseas demand is clearer in the short term. It is difficult to have a sharp decline. In addition, accompanying companies announced the further price increase of products in early 2022, air-conditioning business profit margins will also be The raw material price is expected to further improve further.
Aspect, focus on Haerza (600690.sh) (22 years PE 16.0X), US Group (000333.SZ) (22-year PE 15.7X), Hisense Home Appliance (000921.SZ) (22 years PE 12.3x) . For Gree Electric (000651.sz) (22 years PE 9.2x), it is necessary to pay attention to its subsequent channel reform process and management improvement, still maintaining "increasing" rating.
The main point of view of Guotai Junan is as follows:
In January 2022, 130.7 million units were produced by air-conditioning, down 8.4% year-on-year, and sold 13.31 million units, 5.3% fell by 5.3% year-on-year. Among them, there is 5.59 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year, 7.73 million exports, a year-on-year decline in 2.1%.
Production: Spring Festival holiday affects production rhythm. From the date of production, the actual production of household air conditioners in January is slightly lower than the planned output, which is basically the same. The actual production is mainly due to the disturbance caused by the holiday in advance of the Spring Festival.
Limited: Spring Festival holiday disturbance superimposed faucet decline continues to suppress industry performance. In January, the air-conditioned domestic sales continued to decline, and the reasons were in addition to the Spring Festival influence, the leading enterprises Gree electrical appliances were significantly lower due to the channel reform, stage operations, and the absolute value of the single-month domestic market share and shipments were significantly lower, thus superimposing The year-on-year decline in the industry level. In addition, the level of the channel inventory in December 21 is in high positions in the same period in 20 years, and the dealer is impact on the purchase needs of the dealer in January. Beautiful, Haier's domestic sales is more smooth year, and Hisense has increased year-on-year.
Export: The number of high groups leads to growth, and short-term overseas replenishment needs are still smooth. In January, the air-conditioning export is slightly lower, and the overall export of 7.9 million in the air-conditioning industry in January 20, the same + 56.6%, the high-grade effect is obvious, and the overall air conditioning export is stable. We believe that overseas channel replenishment needs still existence, expected Supporting air conditioning outlets maintain a smooth performance in the first half of 2022. From the perspective of enterprises, the United States also declined in January, while the exports of Gree, Haier, Hisense and other exports were better than year-on-year.
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