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As of the end of March this year, I have asked 10 air conditioners, and 9 of them will tell you: This year the market is not bad, but this year the market is too difficult to do. This difficulty is not just that the demand in the first-tier market is still weak and sluggish, nor is it that market competition is further oligopolistic, but that the convergence and coordination of the entire industry chain are changeable and unpredictable. If it is not possible, it will be "a year in vain." .
Many people from air-conditioning companies said bluntly: The biggest problem we currently have is that the rise in raw materials has triggered a chain reaction, and the lag effect is gradually emerging. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows how long it will roll over. It may be the day when the market suddenly sells well, or it may be the moment when the market moves into a new quagmire.
In this series of chain reactions, the most prominent is that the retail price increase in the terminal market is not only slower than the increase in the upstream raw material prices, but also far lower than the increase in raw materials. The result of this is that the factory is under pressure on both sides (on one side is worried that the increase in supply prices will not be acceptable to merchants and the market at all; on the other side, the downstream rises slowly and the rise is small, and the upstream suppliers do not accept that they can only take action and stop. Stop responding in a negative way).
A person in charge of an air-conditioning company said bluntly, “Except for a few leading companies, they can stock up a large amount of core key raw materials such as copper and compressors. Most factories will not stock up too many raw materials. First, the stocking needs to be occupied. A large amount of funds is afraid of the risk of falling prices; second, hoarding materials requires a lot of warehouses and manpower, and small and medium-sized enterprises do not have factories to stack materials at all."
Many air-conditioning companies have encountered a situation where the supply of "phased" raw materials from upstream suppliers is in short supply. A person in charge of the procurement of an air-conditioning company revealed that “the raw materials are out of stock now, not just the large parts such as compressors and motors, including sheet metal parts, power cords, etc., will be out of stock in stages. The reason for the out-of-stock is not that capacity is not available. On the previous page, many suppliers are not making money and are unwilling to do it. Once, one of our parts was out of stock, and the boss was anxious to find the supplier directly, and the other party said, "There is still a line that is not opened. If the price is right, we will immediately switch to two shifts." Production'. The boss gritted his teeth and said that he would increase the price by 8 points, and the other party said that it would not make money at all if the price was lower than 13 points."
In the short term, due to the slow increase in the ex-factory price of downstream air conditioners, and many factories dare not increase the delivery price significantly, a large number of upstream component suppliers cannot make money, and the production capacity of many suppliers has not been fully released. But in order to maintain the business, they can only "supply a little bit of goods" without fully guaranteeing the supply. "Because you can't make money." No one has the enthusiasm to work, let alone pay workers overtime.
A person in charge of an air-conditioning company told the home appliance circle, “In addition to the comprehensive, continuous, and substantial increase in the cost of raw materials, there are also workers who are not easy to find. The sex is too high, and some third-party labor dispatch companies will not do it for a while, and some third-party labor dispatch companies have adopted the "fudge" method, so that many people come to the factory to work with high wages. They have just been working for a week to familiarize themselves with the production process and technology. Hearing that the salary is not 300 yuan a day as promised before, but only 200 yuan, so I immediately quit."
However, when air-conditioning factories generally encounter a situation where many raw materials from upstream are in "supply in short supply", many best-selling models in the market are "out of stock." The marketing director of an air-conditioning company revealed, “Because the supply of raw materials was not timely, the production volume of some leading companies last month showed that the production volume of one million units was not completed on time, and the production plans of many small and medium-sized factories were also affected. The situation will continue to appear this month, which will inevitably affect the shipments in the first-tier market."
Many heads of air-conditioning companies told the home appliance circle, “The market situation this year has not been anticipated at all, that is, although retail shipments in the first-tier markets have not yet started (currently only regional markets such as South China have seen a round of retail sales due to rising temperatures. Situation), most regional markets in the country are still very general. However, the enthusiasm of merchants in various regions to pick up goods is not diminished. As of the end of March, many merchants have seen high inventory levels, but they are not worried or afraid. Keep an optimistic attitude towards sales."
Based on the "big and small year" cycle of the air conditioner market (after two years of downturn, there will generally be one year of good market conditions. The past 18, 19, and 20 years have not been good in the market for three years, so the hope for 21 years is very strong) , And the implementation of the new energy efficiency national standard policy in 2020, in conjunction with manufacturers’ rounds of low price war promotions, many manufacturers’ warehouse inventory is at a low level. These factors have jointly driven the expectations of factories and businesses on the air-conditioning market this year. Everyone is waiting for the first detonation of the market in April and May, and the big sales in the air-conditioning market in June and July.
Whether the result will meet the expectations of various air-conditioning manufacturers, the home appliance industry believes that it will take time to give an answer! No one can predict.
